Using detailed data from a unique survey of high school graduates in Germany, we
document a gender gap in expected full-time earnings of more than 15%. We apply a
regression-compatible Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition and find that especially differences
in coefficients help explain the gap. In particular, the effects of having time for family as
career motive and being first-generation college student are associated with large penalties
in female wage expectations exclusively. This is especially true for higher expected career
paths. Resulting expected returns to education are associated with college enrollment of
women and could thus entrench subsequent gaps in realized earnings.
JEL Classification: I26, J31, D84
Keywords: wage expectations, gender gap, college enrollment